Really the political season in Utah is not terribly exiting; Mike Lee will be our next Senator. The House First District seat held by Rob Bishop, will still be held by Mr. Bishop and unless an earthquake swallows up every voting booth in the Third District, Jason Chaffetz will win re-election easily. Lastly, Governor Gary Herbert will remain Governor despite an almost serious opponent in Salt Lake County Mayor Pete Corroon.
Democrat Jim Matheson’s seat is the only real major seat at risk of switching Party hands. In years past, Jim Matheson’s incumbency in the Second District has been relatively comfortable. Sure Republicans dutifully run opponents who generally have a slim chance of winning, but this year is different. Morgan Philpot could have a real chance of removing the incumbent Matheson.
While many polls show Philpot close or slightly behind in the race, there could be a surge in the Republican’s direction as the election approaches. Here is the problem for Philpot; he is still campaigning to his base. He is going to Glenn Beck’s rally in D.C, having meetings in Libraries and busying himself with those things that a candidate might do before a Primarily Election. Instead, Philpot, needs to do a better job getting the vote of the Middle. Why?
Matheson has been playing everything safe over the last year. He has been hiding from Town Hall Meetings, cameras and other places where he might have to answer annoying questions. In general Matheson is hoping that, through hiding, his “Blue Dog” mantle will stay in tact leading him to victory.
When the Heal Care Bill’s Reconciliation vote was before the house Matheson’s vote was uncommitted, even after his brother was put on the Federal Courts. Like many people, I called my congressman (Matheson). I sent emails and did my best to get my acquaintances to do the same. Matheson played it safe. He would not respond to peoples phone calls and emails until after his vote, which had the appearance of ‘wait and see.’ Once Matheson’s vote was not necessary for passage of the unpopular bill, he voted ‘no.’ Two days later I received an email from the Congressman’s office declaring that he had voted ’no,’ because the bill didn’t go far enough in providing universal coverage, and it did not bring costs down.
Matheson’s email shows his way of playing it safe. His answer attempts to appease both the Left and Right, while not upsetting the party leadership. Matheson has voted with his party over 70% of the time, just not when people are watching.
Philpot can win the race is if he forces Matheson’s hand. More radio ads, more public appearances and other appearances that play to the middle. If things stay the way they have been played, Matheson will retain his seat and he will continue to play it safe, avoiding controversial votes while still dutifully being a hack for Pelosi and The President.
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